news 11 hours ago

Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL’s 'Sunday Night Football’ game

Sporting News — (Vinnie Iyer)

When the Chiefs (8-1) travel to take on the Raiders (6-3) in Las Vegas in the penultimate game of NFL Week 11 on "Sunday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), they will be looking for revenge for their only loss of the season: a 40-32 home loss in Week 5.

If the Chiefs win, they will take a three-game lead in the AFC West with six games left — an almost insurmountable division lead. The Raiders, with a series sweep, would tighten things up to two games with a head-to-head tiebreaker.

That Week 5 loss was Patrick Mahomes' worst as an NFL starting quarterback. Conversely, it was a big moment for counterpart Derek Carr.

Here's breaking down the rematch in prime time including betting information you need to know for the game:

MORE: Patrick Mahomes having his best season yet for Chiefs

Betting odds for "Sunday Night Football"

  • Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)
  • Point total: 56.5
  • Odds: Chiefs -350, Raiders +280

The Chiefs opened as touchdown and extra-point favorites and went up to 8 points before the half-point adjustment late in the week. The Raiders play on "SNF" at home for the first time in Vegas, but they still won't have any fans to help them in a tough matchup.

Chiefs vs. Raiders all-time series

The Chiefs lead 67-54-52 in their history against the Raiders, including playoffs, over their time in Oakland, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Before the upset in Week 5, the Chiefs had won five straight, 10 of 11 and 12 of 14.

Three trends to know

— 67 percent of spread bettors like the Chiefs to cover after they failed to do so in the first meeting.

— 55 percent of over/under bettors like the game to go over the high point total with two talented offenses on the field and two sometimes very shaky defenses.

— The Chiefs have covered in three of their past five games and the total has gone over in three. The Raiders have covered in four of their past five games and the total has gone over in three.

MORE: How to watch Chiefs-Raiders

Three things to watch

Mahomes and the mistake

Mahomes threw his only interception of the season against the Raiders in Week 5. It cost the Chiefs a chance of winning the game and a potentially perfect season. Mahomes has destroyed the defenses of the Jets and Panthers in consecutive games and will be laser-focused for another monster game.

A driven Carr

Carr played very well in the first meeting, and he's having his best NFL season with a 107.4 passer rating at 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt, both career highs. He's super efficient playing off the running game and needs to hit on a few big pass plays to outduel Mahomes again.

Will the Chiefs choose to run?

The Raiders have the No. 13 run defense in the NFL. They also have the No. 25 pass defense in the NFL. Last time, they controlled the clock with the running game, finished with long touchdowns and limited Mahomes' chances. This time, the Chiefs could help out Mahomes by being more balanced with ball control of their own with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell.

MORE: Where Mahomes, Carr land in Sporting News' latest QB power rankings

Stat that matters

18-3. That's Chiefs coach Andy Reid's regular-season record when his team comes off a bye week. Reid is good at making adjustments during the extra time off and is particularly motivated to get the better of Jon Gruden after the Raiders" "victory lap" around Arrowhead Stadium postgame in Week 5.

Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction

The Chiefs will play mistake-free football to match the Raiders' brand of it; this will come down to which quarterback makes more plays in second-half clutch situations. Mahomes will make up for the first game by letting it loose all over the field, while Carr's comeback attempt will fall short.

Chiefs 31, Raiders 27